Convection is possible each afternoon, although confidence in any particular day having more coverage than others is low given typical model differences.Īs of 630am Fri.Latest surface and buoy data indicate SW winds 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt across the Pamlico Sound and outer central/southern waters, with seas 3-5 ft. Upper ridge begins to build mid to late week with above normal temps returning.
Monday through Wednesday.Front will lift back north on Monday, with typical summertime pattern - inland troughing and high pressure offshore - making its return. Heat indices on Sat could still near 105, especially closer to the coast. With frequent rainfall and cloud cover, temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms. Lackluster shear does not inspire confidence in much beyond an isolated strong storm or two. The HREF gives a 40-50% probability of 6-hourly precipitation exceeding respective Flash Flood Guidance, which sits around 3-4". However, it should be emphasized with a pre-storm environment favorable for efficient rainfall production isolated amounts are certainly possible. WPC has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over our FA for both days with forecast Quantitative Precipitation Forecast between 1.5 and 2.5". Given the persistent signal for this event, raised Probability of Precipitation to categorical for Saturday and retained a heavy rain mention in the forecast. The afternoons and evenings will be favored for most coverage given diurnal enhancement, but at least isolated activity will remain possible overnight. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) soar to a forecast 2-2.5" both days, near the top of the historical range based on sounding climatology, and with the aforementioned forcing environment appears prime for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Surface cold front will push into the area tomorrow morning, then likely stall through the weekend with multiple rounds of shortwave energy riding along the boundary. Tomorrow and Sunday.Main concern remains the potential for locally heavy rain, especially in thunderstorms. A more typical summertime pattern returns for the work week. Overnight lows still a few deg above normal.Īs of 325am Fri.The weekend will be marked with an unusually moist airmass and the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Main threat with convection will be brief heavy downpours with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) climbing to 2-2.25". Increasing moisture and better forcing overnight, support better precipitation chances, with best chances across the northern tier, near area of slightly enhanced shear (20-25 kt). Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, with best chances across the northern tier late.Īs of 630am Fri.High pressure will gradient weaken over the area as a cold front approaches from the northwest tonight. Added Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands to ongoing Heat Advisory. Temps combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will once again keep heat index values 105-110 deg this afternoon across the forecast area, with the potential for a few areas to see heat indices in excess of 110 deg. Low level thickness values, SW flow and 850mb temps around 20-21C support highs in the upper 90s inland and upper 80s to mid 90s for the beaches. Main concern today continues to be the oppressive heat and humidity with temps approaching records in some areas (see climate section below for details). The cold front will lift back north as a warm front Sunday night with a typical summertime pattern returning early next week.Īs of 630am Fri.Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore extending into the SE US, troughing inland, and cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic region. A more unsettled pattern expected this weekend as a cold front stalls across the Carolinas. High pressure remains in control today, while a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest tonight.
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Sat.W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. Tonight.Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING Today.Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, With Frequent Gusts To 25 Kt Late.